This is taken from this week's edition of "The Journal Editorial Report".
Rudy Giuliani: I'm in this to win.
Gigot: Rudy Giuliani comes one step closer to a presidential run. But how will the former New York City mayor's social views play with cultural conservatives in the South and West? Plus a looming fiscal showdown. The president vows to balance the budget without a tax increase. But Democrats say something's got to give. Those topics and our weekly "Hits and Misses," but first these headlines.
Gigot: Welcome to "The Journal Editorial Report." I'm Paul Gigot. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani moved closer this week to a run for the Republican presidential nomination, filing papers with the Federal Election Commission, and telling FOX News that he's in it to win.
Giuliani: I have no idea who's going to get the nomination. But you do this because you believe that you can win the nomination of your party, and then you believe that you are the strongest candidate to win the election for your party.
Gigot: Fred Siegel is a former Giuliani campaign adviser and author of "The Prince of the City: Giuliani, New York and the Genius of American Life."
Fred Siegel, welcome.
Siegel: Thanks for having me.
Gigot: You watched Rudy Giuliani as mayor here. Now we all know about his performance after 9/11, but what else did he accomplish in that office that recommends him for the White House?
Siegel: Well, it's little known, but when he came into office, one out of every seven New Yorkers, 1.1 million people, were on welfare. Now, this is significant not only because welfare itself was a problem. It's because when he came into office, New York was bankrupt. It was technically bankrupt. And he pulled New York back from bankruptcy, partly through welfare reform, partly through cuts, partly through some privatizations. And the fiscal accomplishment of his first term were enormous, but not widely known.
Gigot: Some people say that in the second term, though, he let that get away, not on welfare, but on the fiscal side, where he started to spend a lot and left his successor, Mike Bloomberg, with a deficit.
Siegel: He did. I think he loosened the reins in the second term. He wasn'the wasn't the fiscal manager then that he had been in the first term.
Gigot: A lot of people say that Rudy Giulianisome people say he's a conservative; other people say he's a liberal. Is he a mix of the two? How would you describe his political philosophy?
Siegel: I describe him as an immoderate centrist.
Gigot: What does that mean?
Siegel: What that means is that when he takes on an issue near and dear to his heart, like crime or welfare, he goes all the way. And the way he goes all the way, it's not just because he has an operatic personality. He is very
Gigot: He does have an operatic personality.
Siegel: Oh, there's no question. No one can doubt that. He's very, very bright. He's wonkish the way Clinton was wonkish. Concerned with the mechanisms of how things really work. And that served him very well. And if he was in the White House, it would probably serve him well there, too.
Gigot: Let me ask you about another episode, when he was U.S. attorney. He was very rough in going after the mob, and that was successful, but also white collar criminals, a couple of which he had very publicly thrown up against the wall at their offices, hauled out. And he lost some of those cases in court. What does that say about judgment or his going too far, this operatic personality? Is there a danger of excess?
Siegel: He can push things too hard. There's no question. By and large, he avoided that in his first six years as mayor. When his personal troubles hit, when his health troubles hit, this again became a problem. In a certain sense he paved the way for Eliot Spitzer with his prosecutorial excess.
Gigot: Is that something you would worry about in a Giuliani presidency?
Siegel: I would. I would. Giuliani could hurt himself in this campaign about he shows that side. Now, the question is, is he now so confident, so successful, that he's put that behind him? He's not trying to make a name for himself any more. He is a name.
Gigot: All right, let me ask you the question that really is, I think, at the heart of whether or not he can win this nomination, which is his liberal views on the culture. He is for gay marriage. He's for gun control. He's pro-choice on abortion. Is the Republican nominating electorate going to nominate somebody with those views?
Siegel: Paul, I can't give you a definitive answer. But I can tell you, when I went around the country flogging my book, I talked before conservative audiences, who loved him. And they knew what his positions were. Terror trumps, national security trumps.
Now, for a certain percentage of primary voters, it doesn't matter how much they like him on these other issues, they will vote a bullet on abortion, say. What he's done, which is quite thoughtful, is to talk about judges, the kind of judges he would nominate. He talks about his friendship with Scalia, and the way he wants strict constructionists on the Supreme Court. That will mitigate some it, but not all of it.
Gigot: And do you have any doubt where he stands on the war on terror? Would he be a big supporter, a prominent supporter, of the Bush doctrine on foreign policy?
Siegel: Well, you can describe him in this simple way: The very Saudi prince he refused money to is now funding the Carter Center. And I'm sure he'll be pointing that out.
Gigot: But he has supported the president's policies in Iraq. He has supported the president's policies against the axis of evil, by and large. That
Siegel: He has. But he hasn't set a great deal on this. McCain has gone much further in this direction than he has, because McCain is in the Senate. Giuliani has the great advantage of not being on the spot in a daily basis when it comes to foreign policy.
Gigot: Let me ask you about another aspect of New York politicsthe Bernie Kerik episode, and the fact that he was nominated to be secretary of homeland security and had to withdraw under pressure after some details came out about his private life and other things. And there are people out there, and not just with the other campaign camps, who say, are there any other Bernie Keriks out there, because Rudy Giuliani recommended him for the job.
Siegel: Well, let me say something that's going to sound odd in terms of Bernie Kerik. Had Bernie Kerik been secretary of homeland security, you wouldn't have had the Katrina disaster. Bernie Kerik, in that position, wouldn't have been the lawyer Michael Chertoff wasarguing with the governor of Louisiana on posse comitatus law. The cavalry would have arrived immediately. And that's what Giuliani liked about Kerik. Kerik, as prison director, did a fantastic job.
Gigot: He was a can-do guy?
Siegel: He's a can-do guy. And that's what Giuliani liked about him. And I don't thinkI could be wrong; I don't think Giuliani was fully aware of his nocturnal activities. However, what will come out in the campaign is that, when he made Kerik police commissioner, he didn't fully investigate Kerik's background. And that will lead to something else: How is it that when Giuliani was approved as a federal attorney, his father's own Mafia connections did not come up? So it could open up a can of worms.
Gigot: So you think there are some other landmines out there?
Siegel: No, I don't. I don't. But I think it will be accessedIt'll be a way of raising questions about Giuliani. Talking about Kerik will be a way of raising questions about Giuliani without going after him personally.
Gigot: OK. All right, Fred Siegel, thanks for being here. We'll be watching.
More on Rudy's run when we come back. Plus President Bush's proclamation that the budget can be balanced without a tax hike leaves Democrats saying something's got to give. Our panel previews the looming budget brawl when "The Journal Editorial Report" continues.
Giuliani: The experiences that I've had as mayor of New York City, United States attorney, all of them very, very stronglykind of in the executive area where you have to have leadership and organization and focus, and having dealt with a city that was really in bad shape when I took over, and that had to kind of turn around. I think it gives you the background to approach it, and to feel pretty comfortable that you can make a difference.
Gigot: Big-city mayor, former federal prosecutorwill Rudy Giuliani's past experience help or hurt him in a presidential bid? Joining the panel this week, Wall Street Journal columnist and deputy editor Dan Henninger, as well as Jason Riley and Steve Moore, both Wall Street Journal editorial board members.
Dan, I have to say, I thought I'd never see the day when a New York City mayor would be leading in the polls for the Republican presidential nomination. We have a national poll up that shows him, I think, ahead of even John McCain. And then there's a New Hampshire as well that has him pretty close. Is this just name recognition? People know Rudy Giuliani. He's famous. Or is there something else going on here?
Henninger: A little bit more than that. Fred Siegel touched on it. I think in our age, the media age, stereotypes matter, even good stereotypes. And Rudy's symbol is 9/11. He will be forever attached in the broad public mind with the war on terror. Now, Republican voterspolls suggest that for the Republican base, either the war on terror or Iraq are the foremost thing on their mindcombined, well over 50% as their primary interest. And I think Giuliani is just like a tunnel-vision anti-war-on-terror figure, whereas John McCain is a little more less-defined than Giuliani on that issue. So I think, at this point in time, it is helping Rudy a lot.
Gigot: Well, the voters are looking for an executive who has a record of accomplishment as well, Steve. Can Rudy point to that in New York City?
Moore: Well, it certainly is an incredible record. And Fred talked about the way he turned around this city with something like 21 tax cuts. He talked about the reduction in crime and also the reduction in welfare. So it's a good story. I agree with Dan that what the American people are looking for in a presidential candidate this year is somebodyit has two characteristics that Rudy has: toughness and confidence. And on those, Rudy gets an A.
Gigot: All right, Jason, where the rock?
Riley: Well, the tax cuts that Steve alluded to. Again, this was first-term Rudy Giuliani, and he served two terms. And in the second term, he didn't do so well. The budget grew. Again, the quality of life improvements, indisputable. But his budgets did grow in the second term. And he left his successor, Mike Bloomberg, with a $2.5 billion budget gap, which is larger than the budget gap he inherited from his predecessor, David Dinkins. So it's something that people who care about these issuesfiscal conservatives who vote on these issuesmight have a tough time overlooking that City Hall spending record.
Gigot: Steve, you know the Republican Party. Are they really going to nominate somebody with his social views? For 25 years it has been a litmus test that, if you are pro-choice and pro-gay-marriage and pro-gun-control, you can't get the nomination.
Moore: If you'd asked me a year ago, I would say Rudy has a zero percent chance of winning. Now, I think he is maybe even a front-runner in this. For two reasons. No. 1, he's basically said to social conservatives, I'm going to put conservatives on the Supreme Court. And that is the No. 1 issue to them. And second of all, social conservatives care a whole heck of a lot about the war on terrorism. And they lookthey agree with Dan that this is an important family issue as well.
Henninger: And one more quick-note point to that. Rudy Giuliani is a politician, and he holds these views because he was running for mayor of New York City.
Moore: That's true.
Henninger: You could not possibly have been elected mayor of this city unless you held those views. Does he believe them? Who knows? But I think it might be
Moore: And who else is there that the social conservativesif there were a Ronald Reagan type in the field, I would say yeah, he is going to obliterate Rudy. But there is no strong social conservative.
Gigot: Is this judicial point that he is trying to makesaying, look, I will appoint a Scalia, I'll appoint a Thomas, conservative judgesis that enough to get him past these
Riley: I don't know how that will play in South Carolina and Iowa. I really don't. I mean, and some of these primary voters have a visceral reaction to New York City people
Mooore: That is true.
Riley: that Rudy will have to overcomethat there are these elites, these people condescend to the rest of the country. I think Rudy's got some hurdles there.
Moore: But when he goes to South Carolina, he has this sort of Beatles quality to him. He's a rock star. He really is. He's the one who's getting the big crowds.
Gigot: You've got to update your rock bands.
[laughter]
Moore: Bon Jovi?
Gigot: Keep coming. All right, Steve.
